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Published online 3 September 2008 | Nature 455, 8-9 (2008) | doi:10.1038/455008a
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Big data: The next Google
What will happen in the next 10 years?
*Ten years ago this month, Google's first employee turned up at the garage where the search engine was originally housed. What technology at a similar early stage today will have changed our world as much by 2018? Nature asked some researchers and business people to speculate — or lay out their wares.
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BIG IDEAS: THE REVOLOTION ALREADY IN MOTION. A garage-contained search engine has already shown its power of changing the way of finding some useful information. However, how to make sure that the information pumped into the knowledge ocean is useful is really beyond the current limit of Google. To overcome that limitation, we need to break the dogma dam which has prevented revolutionary discoveries from flowing into the "mainstream" and to kill the "worms" in the peer review can by making the can transparent. Thus, the next big change needs not to be initiated any technology innovation but can be driven by existing technologies. That big change does not need to rely on any BIG DATA but will need a resolution in IDEAS. Fortunately, some ideal revolutions have already taken place in some "side streams". Although the mainstreamers have not felt the impact of these side stream revolutions blocked by some traditional dams the ultimate impact of these revolutions will be huge once they overflow the existing dams to become some watersheds. See many more publications on these revolutions in http://im1.biz and http://blog.sina.com.cn/im1 (Shi V. Liu, SVL@logibio.com)
To become Next Google, a technology/service has to be FREE and easily accescible to worldwide internet users. Above mentioned ideas are good but they are too focused. ELECTRONIC PAPER, AUTONOMOUS ROBOTS, VIDEO VISORS, HAPTICS are going to be expansive and can never reach mass population. Perfect example is Books. Books/written literature are with us since the start of the civilisation. Nowdays people have both electronic and paper copies of books, but people still prefer to read paper copies. Sony recently have launhced Ebook reader which is about $300, and I don't see it reaching to many people. It will be a fashion accessory and will be soon gone like japanies dog robots. Other ideas such as OPEN CONTENT MANAGEMENT, BETTER BROWSERS already facing lots of compitition. Google already have started Knol (a wiki style content management) and recently a new war has been started with the launch of Google's Crome web browser. Microsoft have laucned IE8 and Firefox is constantly upgrading its user experience. Therefore i don't think a new company can with above ideas and become next google. The only idea i like is THREE-DIMENSIONAL ENVIRONMENTS. Implications of 3D env and its uses are beyond our thinking nowdays. Microsoft is already developing virtual computer screens and keyboards. and in next 10 years.. we are going to have a laptop with out any screen and keyboard, which would be like a paper roll and you can just carry it anywehere and work on any surfaces. Nvidia have already achieved high quality 3D graphics and we can guess how powerful it would be if they combine reality like graphics in 3D env.
Hi, Just wanted to let you know, google didn't start in a garage, it started in the Electrical Engineering Department at Stanford University, at the machine http://google.stanford.edu, you can still access it at http://google.stanford.edu. Although stanford has changed it from the original site you can find on the web archives. Apple started in a garage? Maybe thats what you were thinking about.
Some nice thoughts for sure. I liked the ideas about the Visor. As it was written now it might sound like only "freaks" would wear one. In 10-20 Years the thoughts might be the other way. Combine the Visors vision and the second life vision. What you get is not only altered and enhanced reality. You get virtual people standing next to you while you are in a bus. And virtual people shopping in real shops. Sounds fascinating, once visor-like devices become truth it's only a matter of years until virtual networks allow synergy between reality and computer worlds.
The next Google or Microsoft or Sun will be the developer of the product which will save people's time considerably and also increasing their productivity. Though the speed of the PC and Internet has increased considerably in the past few years, people still struggle to organize things.With multiple digital devices like PDAs, Cellphones, Gaming Consoles and Computers, the need to organize information intelligently without much effort and avoiding duplication is the need of the hour. For example what if my data was located in a single place and used by any of these devices instead of duplicating it everywhere. That way I could have more control over the quality and the relevancy of the data. This applies not just to the general user but also enterprise. Any company that brings out products that will help people manage their data without raising privacy concerns, will be next Google.
It seems strange that people still feel the need to develop robots. What do these inventors think the 9 billion people on earth by 2050 will be doing to support themselves if we have robot slaves? Most of the other technologies mentioned enhance human abilities and have the potential to make us more efficient. They will enhance communication between people even when they are on different continents. Have we learned nothing from the obesity epidemic in the western world? Robots have a place in dangerous environments but are superfluous in every other situation.
One approach to making big data more useful is to provide a way in which people can ask unexpected questions in English, and can also can get English explanations of the answers. It's a challenge to do this, particularly if people are to be able to use their own words and phrases, rather than sticking to a fixed vocabulary and grammar. However there is progress. There's a free "Wiki for executable English" over databases, that you can find via Google.
The next revolution will be about how individuals will master all the available information relevant to him, so that his decisions can have a better effect on reality. As a practitionner I know methods to retrieve and store information; I understand the use of sharing and working with people with the same interests. But retrieving, storing and sharing is purposeless if I cannot make this information useful to my life and to my professional objectives. Information can only be useful if I have the capacity to process it, myself. That is, when I will have ordered and established links between the various pieces of information - in my head, and not stored somewhere else. The next revolution therefore, that will truly enhance human abilities to make better decisions and better action in the real world, will be when all the information available, or, better, the selection I will have made for my own purpose, will be easily memorized and assimilated, so that I can process it, and create the unique kind of solution that will be the product of my individuality. This involves a new interface that is not only about reading, hearing, viewing information, but helping to memorize and to establish connections so that the individual can use his/her critical thinking to come to the decision and the action.
I was reading the figures put out by the Yellow Page Industry, by their own count they publish 540 million Directories. While the US Census lists total US population at about 301 million. So do we really need two phone books for every man woman and child in the US? With the advent and adaptation of the internet, most households I have questioned aren't even sure where their phone book is anymore. Yet the directory companies have determined that directory use has stayed the same... How many trees does it take to publish 540,000,000 phone books? If you live in Southern California,you could get as many as ten books per year. I was fortunate enough to watch man land on the moon with my Great Grandfather. Phone Directories were the technology of his generation. I think we're overdue for a change.