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Published online 8 January 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.9
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Temperature rises threaten global food security
Climate changes predicted to trigger food shortages across the world.
Rising temperatures during crop-growing seasons will pose a serious threat to food security by 2090, scientists report.
David Battisti from the University of Washington in Seattle and Rosamond Naylor from Stanford University in California analysed data from 23 global climate models produced for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's 2007 scientific analysis.
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David Battisti and and Rosamond Naylor maybe superb at mathematical modeling, but they could do with a course in agriculture. Plants love the heat. The agricultural shortages of 2003 in France and elsewhere in Europe were caused by the drought, not by the heat. Of course the extreme heat may have caused the drought, but what is more likely is that the drought caused the extreme heat. Drought is generally accompanied by more sunshine and sunshine causes heat. Of course Al Gore and the global warming doomsdayers would swear that the heat caused the drought. According to the BBC, December 2008 was the coldest December in Brittan in at least 30 years. The cause of this we are informed is the result of an area of high pressure that has been lying across the United Kingdom. It would be complicated to say something like that for the drought of 2003. Much simpler to say the cause of the drought was global warming and possibly also George Bush, who is responsible for everything bad that has happened on this planet. And the solution of course is to impose carbon credits vigorously and throw more money towards research grants on global warming and conferences on the same.
The headline is a typical example of the Global Warming Doomsdayer cohorts. "Rising temperatures .. will pose a serious threat to food security by 2090.." 2090!! No less. Lets wait with bated breath for 2090. It is dangerous for specialists gifted in computer hieroglyphics, but unaware of the difference between a tomatoe and a tangerine, to selectively pluck data from here and there, scramble it into a selective algorithm and produce a result which is seized upon global warming religion for urgent government action and money. There is little difference between this and astrology or tarot card reading, except that Government grants are not given for Tarot reading nor are they given serious scientific consideration. Here are a few examples of selectivity in choosing the data. 2003 was a warm year not only for France but also for the USA and globally for the world. In that year the production of Maize in France fell by 27% over 2002 (and not 30% as claimed by the authors - FAO figures). Wheat, much more significant, fell by 21.7%. But in the same year in the US Maize production rose by 12.3%. In absolute figures while Maize fell by 4.45 million tons in 2003 in France it rose by 28.1 million tons in the US, a net gain of 23.65 million tons, which is about 1 1/2 times the entire production of maize in France in 2002! Also the production of wheat rose by 44.8% in 2003 in the US, over 2002! A net gain between France and the US of 11.3 million tons. Also in Australia the production of Wheat, they dont grow much maize, went up by 158%! in 2003 over 2002, a net gain of 16 million tons! Not a global food security crisis by the figures. However Global food security threatened by Global Warming makes nice headlines and justification for further research and grants.