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Published online 11 May 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.469
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Swine flu spread matches previous flu pandemics
New analysis supports pandemic designation.
An early analysis of the H1N1 swine-associated flu virus outbreak suggests that the virus spreads at a rate comparable to that of previous influenza pandemics.
The results, published online today by Science1 and compiled by the World Health Organization Rapid Pandemic Assessment Collaboration, support the designation of swine flu as a pandemic but also indicate that the fatality rates thus far are lower than those seen during the 1918 flu outbreak or those anticipated from an avian influenza pandemic.
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I posted an anylisis of errors in data provided by WHO about H1N1 in few web pages during last few days. Statistic of reported cases on 8, may:2500. 50%foreigners,50% Mexicans,vast majority infected in Mexico was simple IMPOSIBLE. But nobody answered me, no one newspaper. See more in http://loincorrectodelopolitico.blogspot.com/
Eve Danitz, I read your blog - it is very interesting indeed. Good thoughts. On another hand, if more mexicans were infected but not reported as you indicated, that also means the death rate is much much lower than the currently calculated rate.
It's interesting how many ways this matches the 1918 flu; I have seen many articals that address this aspect. What I am curious to know more about, something the media has yet to mention, is the future lethality of the virus. The first 'wave' of the 1918 flu was no more lethal than the seasonal flu, but when it came back it was many times more deadly. What will happen when h1n1 reemerges, perhaps as soon as this fall?
Thanks to read the blog Jack . Of course you are right , the rate of death then is lower, wich is a a great new. If you believe science magazine saying the cases in Mexico are about 23000, then what we face is about 4 per cent. About how can the virus act if it emerges on next fall ,as Leight Martin suggested, I think experts and responsibles of health should have the flu of 1918 as the example, talking about taking decisions of how to stop the spread sorry about my english level
The comment in the article that "[the basic reproductive number of the] Seasonal flu typically hovers around 1.2" is certain to be incorrect. A basic reproductive number (BRN) above one is required for epidemic transmission. Seasonal influenza always faces substantial levels of population immunity (from immunization and/or natural exposure). So, I wonder if the author was referring to the effective reproductive number (ERN)? That number (ERN)represents an epidemiological "snap shot" in terms of reproductive realization of an infectious agent.