Abstract
Atmospheric aerosols are of significant environmental importance, due to their effects on air quality, as well as their ability to alter the planet’s radiative balance. Recent studies characterizing the effects of climate change on air quality and the broader distribution of aerosols in the atmosphere show significant, but inconsistent results, including the sign of the effect1,2,3. Using a suite of state-of-the-art climate models, we show that climate change is associated with a negative aerosol–climate feedback of −0.02 to −0.09 W m−2 K−1 for direct radiative effects, with much larger values likely for indirect radiative effects. This is related to an increase in most aerosol species, particularly over the tropics and Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, largely due to a decrease in wet deposition associated with less large-scale precipitation over land. Although simulation of aerosol processes in global climate models possesses uncertainty, we conclude that climate change may increase aerosol burden and surface concentration, which may have implications for future air quality.
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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge the climate modelling groups participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) for producing and making available their model output, and the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP. For CMIP the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals.
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R.J.A. conceived the project, designed the study, carried out the data analysis and led the writing of the paper. W.L. assisted in writing of the paper. S.T.R. provided un-archived HadGEM2 data. All authors discussed the results and commented on the manuscript.
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Allen, R., Landuyt, W. & Rumbold, S. An increase in aerosol burden and radiative effects in a warmer world. Nature Clim Change 6, 269–274 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2827
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2827
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