Abstract
Large pulses of tree mortality have ushered in a major reorganization of Europe’s forest ecosystems. To initiate a robust next generation of trees, the species that are planted today need to be climatically suitable throughout the entire twenty-first century. Here we developed species distribution models for 69 European tree species based on occurrence data from 238,080 plot locations to investigate the option space for current forest management in Europe. We show that the average pool of tree species continuously suitable throughout the century is smaller than that under current and end-of-century climate conditions, creating a tree species bottleneck for current management. If the need for continuous climate suitability throughout the lifespan of a tree planted today is considered, climate change shrinks the tree species pool available to management by between 33% and 49% of its current values (40% and 54% of potential end-of-century values), under moderate (Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6) and severe (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) climate change, respectively. This bottleneck could have strong negative impacts on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity conservation, as only 3.18, 3.53 and 2.56 species of high potential for providing these functions remain suitable throughout the century on average per square kilometre in Europe. Our results indicate that the option space for silviculture is narrowing substantially because of climate change and that an important adaptation strategy in forestry—creating mixed forests—might be curtailed by widespread losses of climatically suitable tree species.
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Data availability
The data that support the findings of this study are available online in the Phaidra database: https://phaidra.univie.ac.at/o:2046439.
Code availability
All code used for simulations, analysis and producing the figures is available online in the Phaidra database: https://phaidra.univie.ac.at/o:2046439.
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Acknowledgements
F.E. acknowledges funding by the Austrian Science Foundation FWF (grant no. I 3757-B29). R.S. and W.R. acknowledge support from the European Research Council under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement no. 101001905, FORWARD). Species pictograms were drawn by Michael Herzog.
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S.D., R.S., W.R. and F.E. conceived the idea. J.W. led the data compilation and analyses, with contributions by all authors. A.G., D.M. and J.W. derived the climate data. O.I. produced the dashboard, and B.H. produced the single species webpages. K.F. compiled all Lepidoptera data. R.S., W.R. and K.F. derived the tree species profiles. All authors contributed to interpreting the results. R.S. and J.W. led the writing of the paper, with contributions from all authors.
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Extended data
Extended Data Fig. 1 Tree species suitability in Europe throughout the 21st century under moderate climate change (RCP 2.6).
(a) Map of the number of tree species that are climatically suitable continuously throughout the 21st century at 1 km² grid cells, and thus form the species pool that can be utilized by current forest management. (b) Percent of species from the current species pool (2020–2029) that cannot be sustained throughout the century. (c) Percent of species that are gained in grid cells (1 km²) at the end of the century (2090–2099) relative to the species that are climatically suitable throughout the century. Tick mark in legend shows the average value across Europe. Stylized figures illustrate exemplary climate niches (green ellipses) for (inset A) species that are climatically suitable throughout the 21st century, (inset B) species suitable under current climate but not under the climate at the end of the century, and (inset C) species suitable only under future, but not current climate. Black lines exemplarily indicate climatic development in temperature-precipitation-space throughout the 21st century.
Extended Data Fig. 2 Tree species suitability in Europe throughout the 21st century under severe climate change (RCP 8.5).
(a) Map of the number of tree species that are climatically suitable continuously throughout the 21st century at 1 km² grid cells, and thus form the species pool that can be utilized by current forest management. (b) Percent of species from the current species pool (2020–2029) that cannot be sustained throughout the century. (c) Percent of species that are gained in grid cells (1 km²) at the end of the century (2090–2099) relative to the species that are climatically suitable throughout the century. Tick mark in legend shows the average value across Europe. Stylized figures illustrate exemplary climate niches (green ellipses) for (inset A) species that are climatically suitable throughout the 21st century, (inset B) species suitable under current climate but not under the climate at the end of the century, and (inset C) species suitable only under future, but not current climate. Black lines exemplarily indicate climatic development in temperature-precipitation-space throughout the 21st century.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Average number of tree species per square kilometre climatically suitable across Europe (6168545 cells) under moderate climate change (RCP 2.6).
Bars in dark green show the number of species continuously suitable from 2020 until the respective decade. For example, tree species in dark green in the 2090 s are the species that can be planted today and will be within their climatic niche throughout the entire 21st century. Bars in light green show the number of species that become additionally suitable in this decade because of climate change, but are not yet within their climatic niche under current conditions (and thus have a high planting risk today). Bars in brown show the number of species lost until this decade, relative to current conditions, that is, species that cannot be sustained within their climatic niche. Error bars show the coefficient of variation across Europe.
Extended Data Fig. 4 Average number of tree species per square kilometre climatically suitable across Europe (6168545 cells) under severe climate change (RCP 8.5).
Bars in dark green show the number of species continuously suitable from 2020 until the respective decade. For example, tree species in dark green in the 2090 s are the species that can be planted today and will be within their climatic niche throughout the entire 21st century. Bars in light green show the number of species that become additionally suitable in this decade because of climate change, but are not yet within their climatic niche under current conditions (and thus have a high planting risk today). Bars in brown show the number of species lost until this decade, relative to current conditions, that is, species that cannot be sustained within their climatic niche. Error bars show the coefficient of variation across Europe.
Extended Data Fig. 5 The number of tree species with high ecosystem function potential continuously suitable per grid cell (1 km²) under moderate climate change (RCP 2.6).
Number of species that have high potential for addressing three important ecosystem functions (timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity conservation) are shown in different colours (brown, black, green). Colour intensity indicates the number of cells for a certain number of species, and reaches from 0 (white) to the maximum number of cells per ecosystem function and region (dark hues). For each ecosystem function the first column shows the number of species with high potential for the current species pool (2020–2029). High potential species that are continuously suitable throughout the 21st century (and thus potential options for current management) are shown in the second column. Red lines indicate the average number of species.
Extended Data Fig. 6 The number of tree species with high ecosystem function potential continuously suitable per grid cell (1 km²) under severe climate change (RCP 8.5).
Number of species that have high potential for addressing three important ecosystem functions (timber production, carbon storage, biodiversity conservation) are shown in different colours (brown, black, green). Colour intensity indicates the number of cells for a certain number of species, and reaches from 0 (white) to the maximum number of cells per ecosystem function and region (dark hues). For each ecosystem function the first column shows the number of species with high potential for the current species pool (2020–2029). High potential species that are continuously suitable throughout the 21st century (and thus potential options for current management) are shown in the second column. Red lines indicate the average number of species.
Extended Data Fig. 7 Areas of the study region holding high potential for multifunctionality (shown in dark green) under future climatic conditions.
Maps are shown for three climate change scenarios. Multifunctionality is defined as areas with at least two species with high potential for each of the three ecosystem functions considered.
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Wessely, J., Essl, F., Fiedler, K. et al. A climate-induced tree species bottleneck for forest management in Europe. Nat Ecol Evol (2024). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02406-8
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-024-02406-8
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