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Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts

Nature Sustainability volume 6, pages 1565–1577 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Human-induced land subsidence causes many coastal areas to sink centimetres per year, exacerbating relative sea level rise (RSLR). While cities combat this problem through investment in coastal infrastructure, rural areas are highly dependent on the persistence of protective coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and marshes. To shed light on the future of low-lying rural areas in the face of RSLR, we here studied a 20-km-long rural coastline neighbouring a sinking city in Indonesia, reportedly sinking with 8–20 cm per year. By measuring water levels in mangroves and quantifying floor raisings of village houses, we show that, while villages experienced rapidly rising water levels, their protective mangroves experience less rapid changes in RSLR. Individual trees were able to cope with RSLR rates of 4.3 (95% confidence interval 2.3–6.3) cm per year through various root adaptations when sediment was available locally. However, lateral retreat of the forest proved inevitable, with RSLR rates up to four times higher than foreshore accretion, forcing people from coastal communities to migrate as the shoreline retreated. Whereas local RSLR may be effectively reduced by better management of groundwater resources, the effects of RSLR described here predict a gloomy prospect for rural communities that are facing globally induced sea level rise beyond the control of local or regional government.

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Fig. 1: Hypothesized gradients in experienced RSLR (that is, the change in water level experienced at a certain location).
Fig. 2: Situation overview of the study area based on previously reported subsidence and erosion rates.
Fig. 3: Observed responses of local communities to increasing flood intensity and coastal erosion.
Fig. 4: Parameters measured in the mangrove fringe and foreshore of Demak Regency, the rural area neighbouring Semarang City.
Fig. 5: A summarizing schematic representation of the key processes affecting cross-shore profiles under low and high RSLR rates (columns), in the presence of low and high sediment availability (rows).
Fig. 6: Overlay map of existing data on relative sea level rise and people protected by mangroves.

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Data availability

Data in support of this manuscript can be found at https://doi.org/10.4121/22096397. The village census data from which migration fluxes were derived were obtained from the website of the central bureau of statistics of Demak Regency, available at https://demakkab.bps.go.id/publication.html. Rainfall data were downloaded from Semarang’s weather station (https://dataonline.bmkg.go.id/). Finally, data from the tide monitoring station in Semarang were obtained from http://www.ioc-sealevelmonitoring.org/station.php?code=sema.

Code availability

Relevant code in support of this manuscript can be found at https://doi.org/10.4121/22096397.

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Acknowledgements

This work is part of the BioManCo project with project number 14753, which is (partly) financed by NWO Domain Applied and Engineering Sciences, and Engineering Sciences, and co-financed by Boskalis Dredging and Marine experts, Van Oord Dredging and Marine Contractors bv, Deltares, Witteveen + Bos and Wetlands International. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript. We are grateful to the group of 32 volunteers, including students from Diponegoro University, State University of Semarang and local volunteers who, coordinated by S.R., conducted the interviews and distributed the questionnaire to the local community in Semarang-Demak area. In addition, we thank L. Ni’am and F. Rahmawan who provided additional insight into the socio-economical issues in the local communities of the Semarang-Demak area. We thank A. Ismanto and R. Pribadi for facilitating student participation of Diponegoro University in fore-shore field experiments. Additionally, we thank the Wetlands International Indonesia team for helping us identify relevant publicly available census data of the Demak Regency (A. Susanto Astra) and by connecting us to local village chiefs for background interviews on the subsidence in the area (thank you E. Budi Priyanto). We thank bapak Sairi and ibu Musaini, and their children, as well as, bapak Slamet and ibu Paini and their family for hosting the researchers and students in their own homes. We are grateful to bapak Muis and bapak Umar for their roles as local translators. We also thank bapak Yogie, manager of Combo Putra hardware store in Banyumanik, for his technical advice and enthusiastic participation in experiment and monitoring design with the materials available. Finally, we thank A. Wielemaker for technical support with GIS and T. van der Heide for polishing the storyline.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Yerseke, the Netherlands

    Celine E. J. van Bijsterveldt, Sri Ramadhani, Tom S. Heuts, Corinne van Starrenburg & Tjeerd J. Bouma

  2. Faculty of Geosciences, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

    Celine E. J. van Bijsterveldt, Sri Ramadhani, Tom S. Heuts, Corinne van Starrenburg & Tjeerd J. Bouma

  3. Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University & Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands

    Celine E. J. van Bijsterveldt

  4. Unit for Marine and Coastal Systems, Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands

    Peter M. J. Herman & Bregje K. van Wesenbeeck

  5. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands

    Peter M. J. Herman, Bregje K. van Wesenbeeck & Silke A. J. Tas

  6. Aquatic Ecology and Environmental Biology, Radboud Institute for Biological and Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands

    Tom S. Heuts

  7. Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, MA, USA

    Silke A. J. Tas

  8. Faculty of Geosciences, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands

    Annisa Triyanti

  9. Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Sciences, Oceanography Department, Universitas Diponegoro, Semarang, Indonesia

    Muhammad Helmi

  10. Wetlands International, Wageningen, the Netherlands

    Femke H. Tonneijck

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  1. Celine E. J. van Bijsterveldt
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the work presented in this paper. C.E.J.v.B. designed experiments, supervised students (S.R., T.S.H. and C.v.S.), did the formal analysis and wrote the initial draft of the paper. T.J.B. conceived the idea and drew the overarching study design. P.M.J.H. and B.K.v.W. both had valuable contributions to interpretation of the results and conceptualization of their meaning on a larger scale. Both authors also contributed proactively to the storyline of the manuscript. S.R. co-designed and remotely coordinated interviews on effects of RSLR in the villages, which included the floor raising data. S.R. also contributed to formatting of conceptual Figs. 1 and 5. T.S.H. co-designed and conducted sedimentation experiments in the field. C.v.S. co-designed and conducted the mangrove root mat field survey. S.A.J.T. contributed substantially to the analysis of the mangrove experienced RSLR data. A.T., M.H. and F.H.T. provided valuable insights into the socio-economic context (A.T.) and the historical subsidence of the region (M.H.) and facilitated our research through their networks (A.T., M.H. and F.H.T.). All authors reviewed the manuscript multiple times.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Celine E. J. van Bijsterveldt.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1 Observed natural sedimentation events in the field.

Field observations of sedimentation events over short periods of time. a. One of the monitored sites where cable-ties had been used to mark pneumatophores 10 cm from the tip and 10 cm from the bed before the wet-season. This picture, taken a few months later shows that the site had been subjected to substantial sediment deposition that buried the lower cable tie under several centimetres of sediment. b. A mangrove sapling on the landward edge of a chenier (sand lens on top of a mudflat), seaward of the mature mangrove fringe. The green pneumatophore part that is revealed after excavation of the sapling (c) used to be exposed to sunlight and suggest that this sapling recently encountered a sedimentation event of roughly 30 centimetres, after which pneumatophores started to extend (white pneumatophores and pneumatophore parts). Photos: Celine van Bijsterveldt.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Sedimentation experiment.

Saplings and young mangrove trees with pneumatophores can survive sedimentation events of 20 cm per event. 40 cm of sudden sedimentation caused survival rates that were significantly lower than the expected survival of 90% * in both saplings and young trees. Photos: Celine van Bijsterveldt.

Extended Data Fig. 3 Observed root morphologies at sites with experienced RSLR.

Two mangrove fringes that are subjected to RSLR. The erosion reveals past morphological adaptations in the root-systems of mangrove trees at these sites experiencing rapid RSLR. a. A mangrove fringe that is subjected to rapid RSLR with evidence of multiple root mats per tree. This site has been subjected to RSLR, sudden sedimentation (during which the second rootmat developed) and was later hit by lateral erosion. During the sudden sedimentation, trees seemingly responded to the anoxia in their (now buried) original pneumatophores, by growing new pneumatophores from fresh cable roots in the top of the new sediment layer. The excess sediment has recently disappeared during erosion, revealing the secondary root mats and even some of the older pneumatophores, which are attached to an older subsurface root mat that now still anchors the tree. b. A mangrove fringe subjected to moderate RSLR where only erosion has occurred. These trees do not have multiple root mats, only extended pneumatophores to keep up with the rising water level. Photos: Celine van Bijsterveldt.

Extended Data Fig. 4 Validation house-experience RSLR methods.

Correlation between the two ways of calculating house experienced RSLR rates.

Extended Data Fig. 5 Methods experienced RSLR by mangroves.

Methods applied in the field to monitor effects of experienced RSLR by the mangrove fringe and the bare fore-shore. a. Camouflaged pressure sensor deployed on a young mangrove’s tree trunk around 20 cm from the bed. b. Sedimentation pole approximately 50 meters seaward of the mangrove fringe. c. Pneumatophore markings in the form of small red cable-ties applied at 10 cm from each root’s tip and 10 cm from the bed at baseline. d. Example of a dead mangrove tree (toppled over) with multiple distinguishable root-mats (oldest to youngest, 1 to 3). Photos: Celine van Bijsterveldt.

Extended Data Fig. 6 Example of tide-fitted mangrove water level logger.

Raw data of one of the water level loggers, fitted to the tidal curve derived from the tide station of Semarang harbour. The black box indicates the first three months that were used to fit the logger to the tidal curve using average daily inundation time. The subsidence of this station was determined using the average tide corrected mean water level per day measured by the logger during the timeframe indicated by the blue line below the x-axis in 2019 with the same period (blue line) in 2018. To validate this trend, the same was done for a timeframe during the mid-dry season (green line below the x-axis) and the late dry season (red line below the x-axis). Wet season data were thus not used for the analysis to exclude the influence of rainfall and run-off on water level change.

Extended Data Fig. 7 Validation longshore trend in mangrove experienced RSLR.

Validation of mangrove experienced RSLR rates along the subsidence gradient, using different dry-season time windows (n = 15 days for the upper panel (a), and n = 60 days for the other three panels (b–d)) to obtain mean (+/− 95% confidence intervals) water level change between 2019 and 2018 through two-sided t-tests for each site. R^2 and p-values per panel indicate the significance of the relation between mean water level change and distance from subsiding city, based on log-linear regression. Note: the x-axis title in the lower panel applies to all panels.

Extended Data Fig. 8 Subsidence of Semarang’s tide station.

Water levels as measured by the three sensors (two pressure sensors (prs & pr2), and a radar (rad)) of Semarang’s tide station. The radar signal shows a linear increase in water level of 8 cm per year before the data gap in 2016. After the data gap the linear increase in water level has decreased to 8 mm per year. It is unclear what has happened during the data gap, but it seems plausible that the station was anchored at a deeper sediment layer.

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van Bijsterveldt, C.E.J., Herman, P.M.J., van Wesenbeeck, B.K. et al. Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts. Nat Sustain 6, 1565–1577 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01226-1

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