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The impact of climate change on crop yield can be estimated using a variety of methods. Here, a multi-method ensemble is used to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ and improve overall confidence in projections of climate impacts on wheat yields.
Remote sensing of tropical forest activity indicates that temporal autocorrelation—an indicator of slow recovery from stress—rises steeply as precipitation falls sufficiently. This offers some support for a tipping point for forest collapse.
During periods of hydrologic stress, vegetation productivity is limited by soil moisture supply and atmospheric water demand. This study shows that atmospheric demand has a greater effect in many biomes, with implications for climate change impacts.
Natural multidecadal climate variability contributes to global mean surface temperature trends. This study quantifies those from the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, finding that the largest contributions are during the positive phase, which accelerates warming.
Application of a terrestrial biogeochemical model that simulates diverse forest communities suggests that plant trait diversity may enable the Amazon rainforest to adjust to new climate conditions via a process of ecological sorting.
Results from four integrated assessment models show countries’ efforts to cut emissions fall towards the lower end of the social cost of carbon distribution, suggesting insufficient levels of ambition to meet the Paris Agreement goals.
China’s ‘Grain for Green’ revegetation programme has potential to help mitigate climate change. However, the increased water demand in the Loess Plateau is approaching a level that will impact on water availability to meet human demand.
Ocean acidification impairs reef fish behaviour. This study shows offspring of spiny damselfish sensitive to high CO2 levels have different brain molecular responses to those of tolerant individuals, suggesting individual variation may allow adaptation.
Analysis of over 18,000 vessels shows that the CO2 emissions from shipping in East Asia accounted for 16% of global shipping emissions in 2013 (compared to 4–7% in 2002–2005), and account for 14,500–37,500 premature deaths per year.
The importance of climate change for malaria transmission has been hotly debated. Research based on ten years of field observations and a model that simulates village-scale transmission for West Africa suggests that we should not be overly concerned.
In 2014–2015 the northeast Pacific Ocean experienced a strong marine heatwave. This study shows teleconnections to the tropical Pacific and the weak El Niño were key sources in the atmospheric forcing and persistence of the event.
Mortality rates based on data representing 400 million people in 200 European regions show countries other than the UK, the Netherlands and Belgium remain exposed to increased mortality due to winter temperature fluctuations.
Energy budget and climate model estimates of transient climate response match when model output is processed in the same manner as an observational record. Removal of observational sampling biases infers an estimate of 1.66 °C, consistent with model estimates.
Historically the sea surface temperature of the tropical oceans has influenced Sahel rainfall. This study shows that increased surface temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea have driven recent rainfall increases.
The North America winter cooling trend in the early 2000s can be explained by decadal climate signals. For the northwest, fluctuations in the remote tropical Pacific were responsible, whereas for central North America it was mid-latitude circulation changes.
Observed northern extratropical land greening is consistent with anthropogenic forcings, where greenhouse gases play a dominant role, but not with simulations that include only natural forcings and internal climate variability.
The global warming slowdown has been attributed to the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Modelling work simulates this negative phase in response to anthropogenic aerosols, indicating that external forcings may influence natural cycles.
The process of breeding, delivery and adoption of new maize varieties can take 30 years. Projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize development cycle suggests the need for immediate development to prevent yield losses.
A meta-analysis of soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone suggests that thawing under aerobic conditions, which releases CO2, will strengthen the permafrost carbon feedback more than waterlogged systems, which releases CO2 and CH4.
Energy storage is vital to the widespread rollout of renewable electricity technologies. Modelling shows that energy storage can add value to wind and solar technologies, but cost reduction remains necessary to reach widespread profitability.