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Enhancing rice production sustainability and resilience via reactivating small water bodies for irrigation and drainage
Ponds played an important role in ancient rice-growing regions such as China and India. Here, the authors find that reviving small water bodies to recycle drainage water for irrigation can reduce China’s rice production water footprint by 9% and alleviate 2-3% yield loss in dry years.
- Sisi Li
- , Yanhua Zhuang
- & Liang Zhang
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Article
| Open Access
The turbulent future brings a breath of fresh air
Turbulence is an important ventilator of near-surface pollution but is also influenced by it. Here we find that turbulence is likely to increase with mitigating black carbon emissions, providing an added positive impact in highly polluted regions.
- Camilla W. Stjern
- , Øivind Hodnebrog
- & Ignacio Pisso
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Demonstrating the value of beaches for adaptation to future coastal flood risk
This paper presents a method for quantifying the benefits of beaches in reducing storm and long-term coastal flood risk. This method can contribute to cost-effective decision-making on climate change adaptation in many of the world’s coasts.
- Alexandra Toimil
- , Iñigo J. Losada
- & Gonéri Le Cozannet
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Reassessment of growth-climate relations indicates the potential for decline across Eurasian boreal larch forests
Tree growth in boreal forests is generally predicted to increase under warming. Here, the authors demonstrate a method to analyze physiologically informed temperature series of tree-ring data, finding potentially overlooked growth-temperature responses and projecting increasing risks of warming to boreal larch forests.
- Wenqing Li
- , Rubén D. Manzanedo
- & Neil Pederson
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Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise
Adaptation policies can considerably influence the intensity and spatial patterns of sealevel rise-related migration, with managed retreat and setback zones leading to outmigration, while hard protection measures favor migration toward the coast.
- Lena Reimann
- , Bryan Jones
- & Athanasios T. Vafeidis
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Sediment delivery to sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta under climate change and anthropogenic impacts
The potential for enhanced sediment delivery to the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta exists, but it alone is insufficient to sustain the system. The delta may be resilient to climate change, but only in the absence of dam construction and water diversions.
- Jessica L. Raff
- , Steven L. Goodbred Jr.
- & Lauren A. Williams
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The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves
The global risk of record-breaking heatwaves is assessed, with the most at-risk regions identified. It is shown that record-smashing events that currently appear implausible could happen anywhere as a result of climate change.
- Vikki Thompson
- , Dann Mitchell
- & Julia M. Slingo
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Article
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The potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise
The capacity of coral reefs to keep pace with sea-level rise is central to their ability to continue to provide shoreline protection to vulnerable coastal communities. Here, the study shows that whereas restoration has the potential to minimize climate-change impacts, doing nothing will amplify them.
- Lauren T. Toth
- , Curt D. Storlazzi
- & Richard B. Aronson
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Article
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Multiple episodes of ice loss from the Wilkes Subglacial Basin during the Last Interglacial
Sedimentary records from offshore of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet support two episodes of ice loss during the last interglacial period (130-115 ka), leading to elevated global sea levels under global mean temperatures similar to the present day.
- Mutsumi Iizuka
- , Osamu Seki
- & Saiko Sugisaki
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Electrified hydrocarbon-to-oxygenates coupled to hydrogen evolution for efficient greenhouse gas mitigation
The production of hydrogen, and the refining of hydrocarbons, are significant contributors to the CO2 emissions of the chemicals industry. Coupled electrification of these processes has the potential to reduce total emissions by up to 39% even when using the electricity mix available today.
- Wan Ru Leow
- , Simon Völker
- & Edward H. Sargent
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Article
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Thawing permafrost poses environmental threat to thousands of sites with legacy industrial contamination
Thousands of industrial sites were found to be correlated with contaminated sites in the Arctic. Between 13,000 and 20,000 contaminated sites are likely to exist in the permafrost region, 26% of which will be affected by permafrost thaw before 2100.
- Moritz Langer
- , Thomas Schneider von Deimling
- & Guido Grosse
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Increased impact of heat domes on 2021-like heat extremes in North America under global warming
The heat dome explains about 55% of the 2021 Western North American high temperatures. The intensity of heat extremes associated with such circulations are increasing faster than background global warming due to soil moisture feedbacks.
- Xing Zhang
- , Tianjun Zhou
- & Wenmin Man
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Alkalinity responses to climate warming destabilise the Earth’s thermostat
The weathering alkalinity flux from mid-latitudes to the ocean will be strongly altered by climate warming by 2100. Under different emissions scenarios either a strengthening or a weakening of the flux and thus of the oceanic CO2 buffer is predicted.
- Nele Lehmann
- , Tobias Stacke
- & Helmuth Thomas
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Article
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U.S. West Coast droughts and heat waves exacerbate pollution inequality and can evade emission control policies
Heat waves and droughts increase air pollution from power plants in California, which disproportionately damages counties with a majority of people of color. Droughts cause chronic increases in pollution damages. Heat waves are responsible for the days with the highest damages.
- Amir Zeighami
- , Jordan Kern
- & August A. Bruno
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Climate-driven tradeoffs between landscape connectivity and the maintenance of the coastal carbon sink
Coastal connectivity between ecosystems increases with sea level rise but fails to maintain landscape carbon storage and marsh extent at extreme rates of sea level rise.
- Kendall Valentine
- , Ellen R. Herbert
- & Matthew L. Kirwan
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Assessing coupling interactions in a safe and just operating space for regional sustainability
Here the authors propose an operationalizable framework, integrating safe and just operating space with Sustainable Development Goals, to assess regional sustainability and develops targeted strategies for actualizing sustainable development across scales.
- Dongni Han
- , Deyong Yu
- & Jiangxiao Qiu
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Reshoring silicon photovoltaics manufacturing contributes to decarbonization and climate change mitigation
Reshoring silicon photovoltaic manufacturing back to the U.S. improves domestic competitiveness, advances decarbonization goals, and contributes to mitigating climate change.
- Haoyue Liang
- & Fengqi You
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Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates
The climate crisis will increase the frequency of extreme weather events. Harrison et al. show that while global waterlogging-induced yield losses increase from 3–11% historically to 10–20% by 2080, adapting sowing periods and adopting waterlogging-tolerant genotypes can negate such yield losses.
- Ke Liu
- , Matthew Tom Harrison
- & Meixue Zhou
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The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021
The 2021 unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave broke temperature records by extraordinary amounts. Impacts included hundreds of deaths, mass-mortalities of marine life, increased wildfires, reduced crop and fruit yields, and river flooding.
- Rachel H. White
- , Sam Anderson
- & Greg West
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Origins of Barents-Kara sea-ice interannual variability modulated by the Atlantic pathway of El Niño–Southern Oscillation
This paper finds that the winter sea-ice over the Barents-Kara Seas has exhibited strengthened interannual variations in recent decades likely due to increased amplitudes of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate.
- Binhe Luo
- , Dehai Luo
- & Yao Yao
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Review Article
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Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate
Zooplankton are a critical link to higher trophic levels and play an important role in global biogeochemical cycles. This Review examines key responses of zooplankton to ocean warming, highlights key knowledge and geographic gaps that need to be addressed, and discusses how better use of observations and long-term zooplankton monitoring programmes can help fill these gaps.
- Lavenia Ratnarajah
- , Rana Abu-Alhaija
- & Lidia Yebra
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Amazon windthrow disturbances are likely to increase with storm frequency under global warming
The authors link the frequency of convective storms in the Amazon basin to the density of large forest mortality events (windthrows) and project an increase in forest disturbance from these dynamics due to climate warming over this century.
- Yanlei Feng
- , Robinson I. Negrón-Juárez
- & Jeffrey Q. Chambers
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Temperature-related mortality in China from specific injury
Injury poses heavy burden on public health, but little evidence on the potential role of climate change on injury exists. Here, the authors collect data during 2013-2019 in six provinces of China to estimate the associations between temperature and injury mortality, and to project future mortality burden attributable to temperature change driven by climate change.
- Jianxiong Hu
- , Guanhao He
- & Wenjun Ma
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Growth of ocean thermal energy conversion resources under greenhouse warming regulated by oceanic eddies
Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) resources provide a renewable solution to fuel our future. Here the authors show a significant increase of OTEC resources under greenhouse warming with the increasing rate regulated by oceanic eddies.
- Tianshi Du
- , Zhao Jing
- & Haiyuan Yang
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U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events
The authors show that in recent decades compound climate extremes (i.e., hot, dry, and windy events) have increased and have reduced winter wheat yields in the U.S. Great Plains. The area most affected is the same area as that in 1930s Dust Bowl.
- Haidong Zhao
- , Lina Zhang
- & Xiaomao Lin
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Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand
Rising forest flammability could become a major public health issue and amplify climate change via feedbacks on the carbon cycle. Here the authors identify daily fuel moisture thresholds associated with increased fire risk in earth’s forests.
- Hamish Clarke
- , Rachael H. Nolan
- & Matthias M. Boer
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Global crop yields can be lifted by timely adaptation of growing periods to climate change
'Crop growing periods and cultivars are key to crop adaptation. Here, the authors use a modelling approach that integrates farmers decision and biophysical crop models, showing the importance of cultivar, sowing date and growing period adaptation.'
- Sara Minoli
- , Jonas Jägermeyr
- & Christoph Müller
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Article
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Sea-level rise will likely accelerate rock coast cliff retreat rates
Results forecast that cliff retreat rates will increase by up to an order of magnitude by 2100 according to current predictions of sea-level rise, and reveal that even historically stable rock coasts are highly sensitive to sea-level rise.
- Jennifer R. Shadrick
- , Dylan H. Rood
- & Klaus M. Wilcken
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Article
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Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China
Chinese coastal populations are concentrated in subsiding locations, and also subject to sea-level rise. Here the authors find that more areas, population and assets are exposed to coastal flooding by 2050 but realistic subsidence control measures can avoid additional risks.
- Jiayi Fang
- , Robert J. Nicholls
- & Peijun Shi
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Energy requirements and carbon emissions for a low-carbon energy transition
A low-carbon energy transition consistent with 1.5 °C of warming may result in substantial carbon emissions. Moreover, the initial push to substitute fossil fuels with low-carbon alternatives will reduce the net energy available to society.
- Aljoša Slameršak
- , Giorgos Kallis
- & Daniel W. O’Neill
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Improving public support for climate action through multilateralism
A new study reports survey-experimental results suggesting that multilateral approaches to climate action increase domestic carbon tax approval. The appeal of multilateralism reflects improved sustainability beliefs about effectiveness, fairness, and reciprocity.
- Michael M. Bechtel
- , Kenneth F. Scheve
- & Elisabeth van Lieshout
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Climate change may outpace current wheat breeding yield improvements in North America
Wheat breeding programmes improve yield by enhancing biotic and abiotic stress resistance. This study reveals that high temperature extremes adversely affect the productivity of new elite wheat breeding lines, and that future yield gains may be outpaced by the rapid advance of climate change.
- Tianyi Zhang
- , Yong He
- & Xiaoguang Yang
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The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration
The authors calculated the economy-wide costs of sea level rise and possible adaptation options. Protection clearly pays off and when combining protection and coastal migration, costs can be brought down further, yet, residual damage costs are large.
- Gabriel Bachner
- , Daniel Lincke
- & Jochen Hinkel
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Article
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The effect of carbon fertilization on naturally regenerated and planted US forests
The CO2 fertilisation effect in forests remains controversial. Here, the authors disentangle the effect of CO2 on forest wood volume from other environmental factors, showing that elevated CO2 had a positive effect on wood volume in planted and natural US temperate forests.
- Eric C. Davis
- , Brent Sohngen
- & David J. Lewis
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Climate and land management accelerate the Brazilian water cycle
Increasing floods and droughts are raising concerns of an accelerating water cycle. A new study shows that the terrestrial water cycle in Brazil has been mostly drying or accelerating, aligned with changes in rainfall, water use, and forest cover.
- Vinícius B. P. Chagas
- , Pedro L. B. Chaffe
- & Günter Blöschl
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Social inequalities in climate change-attributed impacts of Hurricane Harvey
New study shows that up to 50% of properties flooded after hurricane Harvey flooded because of climate change, with low-income and Latina/x/o neighborhoods experiencing higher climate change-attributed impacts.
- Kevin T. Smiley
- , Ilan Noy
- & Oliver E. J. Wing
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Earlier onset of North Atlantic hurricane season with warming oceans
There is a significant trend in recent decades towards an earlier start to North Atlantic hurricane seasons. Both the first named storm and first U.S. landfall of the year are occurring earlier. This shift is physically linked to warmer western North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in spring.
- Ryan E. Truchelut
- , Philip J. Klotzbach
- & Eric S. Blake
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Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia
Europe is a heatwave hotspot exhibiting three-to-four times faster upward trends compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes. Here, this accelerated trend is linked to the increased persistence of Eurasian double jets in the upper troposphere.
- Efi Rousi
- , Kai Kornhuber
- & Dim Coumou
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Associations between long-term drought and diarrhea among children under five in low- and middle-income countries
Increased droughts are associated with climate change. Here, the authors reveal an association between long-term drought and an elevated risk of diarrhea in children under five in low- and middle income countries, and suggest that improving water quality, sanitation, and hygiene practices might reduce the risk.
- Pin Wang
- , Ernest Asare
- & Kai Chen
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The timing of unprecedented hydrological drought under climate change
Significant regional disparities exist in the time left to prepare for unprecedented drought and how much we can buy time depending on climate scenarios. Specific regions pass this timing by the middle of 21st century even with stringent mitigation.
- Yusuke Satoh
- , Kei Yoshimura
- & Taikan Oki
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Groundwater discharge as a driver of methane emissions from Arctic lakes
CH4 inputs to Arctic lakes via groundwater discharge are an important pathway that links CH4 production in thawing permafrost to emission via lakes. Here the authors unravel the role and drivers of groundwater inflows for CH4 emissions from Arctic lakes.
- Carolina Olid
- , Valentí Rodellas
- & Jan Karlsson
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Targeting climate adaptation to safeguard and advance the Sustainable Development Goals
Without targeted climate adaptation, impacts of climate change threaten achievement of all 169 SDG targets. Fuldauer et al. provide an actionable framework to assess these impacts and help systematically align national adaptation plans with the SDGs.
- Lena I. Fuldauer
- , Scott Thacker
- & Jim W. Hall
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Tropical volcanism enhanced the East Asian summer monsoon during the last millennium
The probability of an El Niño in the winter after large tropical volcanic eruptions increases. When this happens, summer monsoon precipitation over East Asia is enhanced, overwhelming thermodynamic precipitation reduction from volcanic cooling.
- Fei Liu
- , Chaochao Gao
- & Wenjie Dong
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Adjusting agricultural emissions for trade matters for climate change mitigation
Understanding emissions flow with trade matters for climate action. Trade-adjusted emission accounting would close the carbon loophole generated by trade for more effective climate action targeted at producers, consumers, and intermediary traders
- Adrian Foong
- , Prajal Pradhan
- & Jürgen P. Kropp
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Resilience of urban public electric vehicle charging infrastructure to flooding
A study of how the Greater London electric vehicle charging network is affected by flooding reveals disproportionate impacts on already-stressed parts of the network, peaking as far as over 10 km away from the flooded regions.
- Gururaghav Raman
- , Gurupraanesh Raman
- & Jimmy Chih-Hsien Peng
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Modelling armed conflict risk under climate change with machine learning and time-series data
Using machine learning, the authors reveal that stable background conditions explain most variation in armed conflict risk worldwide. Positive temperature deviations and precipitation extremes also increase the risk of conflict onset and incidence.
- Quansheng Ge
- , Mengmeng Hao
- & Tobias Ide
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| Open Access
Drought assessment has been outpaced by climate change: empirical arguments for a paradigm shift
Climate has changed over the last century, yet this change is seldom accounted for in drought assessment. This study quantifies drought bias due to climate change and suggests adjustment to align monitoring with contemporary risk.
- Zachary H. Hoylman
- , R. Kyle Bocinsky
- & Kelsey G. Jencso
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Contrasting influences of biogeophysical and biogeochemical impacts of historical land use on global economic inequality
Historical land use impacts climate by biogeophysical and biogeochemical effects. Their combined effects on mean and extreme temperature may harm economically disadvantaged countries but benefit those in rich countries, raising questions of equality.
- Shu Liu
- , Yong Wang
- & Le Yu
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Potential fire risks in South America under anthropogenic forcing hidden by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Fire emissions in South America consistently decreased in 2003–2019, although anthropogenic forcing could exacerbate drought and fire risks. Here the authors find that the decreasing fires were associated with climatic conditions unfavorable for intensifying and spreading fires, led by the phase transition of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
- Yanfeng Wang
- & Ping Huang
Risks of synchronized low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections