Featured
-
-
Article
| Open Access
Effects of emissions caps on the costs and feasibility of low-carbon hydrogen in the European ammonia industry
Decarbonizing the European ammonia industry: Less stringent emissions caps for electrolytic hydrogen production can significantly reduce costs and land use while still achieving more than 90% reduction in emissions relative to fossil-based hydrogen.
- Stefano Mingolla
- , Paolo Gabrielli
- & Zhongming Lu
-
Article
| Open Access
Electric vehicle battery chemistry affects supply chain disruption vulnerabilities
Electric vehicle battery supply chains are currently vulnerable to supply disruptions in China, but research shows that the cumulative effect of multiple supply chain steps creates additional vulnerabilities across multiple critical battery minerals.
- Anthony L. Cheng
- , Erica R. H. Fuchs
- & Jeremy J. Michalek
-
Article
| Open Access
A cross-scale framework for evaluating flexibility values of battery and fuel cell electric vehicles
Electrified transportation exhibits great potential to provide flexibility. This article analyzed and compared the flexibility values of battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles for planning and operating interdependent electricity and hydrogen supply chains.
- Ruixue Liu
- , Guannan He
- & Benben Jiang
-
Article
| Open Access
Concentration of asset owners exposed to power sector stranded assets may trigger climate policy resistance
Von Dulong analyzes owners and incidence of asset stranding in the power sector globally. She shows that Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the US are highly exposed to stranded assets, especially coal plants and explores the linkages between asset stranding and climate policy resistance.
- Angelika von Dulong
-
Article
| Open Access
Incentive based emergency demand response effectively reduces peak load during heatwave without harm to vulnerable groups
Co-lead authors Wang, Zhang, Qiu, Lu and their colleagues model an incentive-based emergency demand response to counter heatwaves. The modelled responded leads to the peak load reduction of 7.32% for the covered households, and can achieve a 1.02% peak load reduction when reaching a wide audience with no additional financial burden on vulnerable groups.
- Zhaohua Wang
- , Bin Lu
- & Wenhui Zhao
-
Article
| Open Access
Carbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications
Dixit et al. trace emissions from the extraction and transport of oil. They quantify emissions variability among crude blends and suggest how this variability could be used to further reduce emissions under scenarios for reduced future oil demand.
- Yash Dixit
- , Hassan El-Houjeiri
- & Steven R. H. Barrett
-
Article
| Open Access
The impact of methane leakage on the role of natural gas in the European energy transition
Cost-optimal European energy transition with CO2 and methane neutrality objective is studied. While renewables are the key drivers of climate neutrality, the continuous role of natural gas requires high levels of both CO2 and methane abatement.
- Behrang Shirizadeh
- , Manuel Villavicencio
- & Gunhild A. Reigstad
-
Article
| Open Access
The cost of electrifying all households in 40 Sub-Saharan African countries by 2030
Solar-powered standalone systems drastically lower the cost of electrifying sub-Saharan Africa. Household electrification can be provided at 7c USD per person per day on average. To reflect inter- and intra-country variance, policymakers should consider electrification cost curves.
- Florian Egli
- , Churchill Agutu
- & Tobias S. Schmidt
-
Article
| Open Access
The contribution of corporate initiatives to global renewable electricity deployment
Corporate procurement initiatives, such as RE100, can increase their impact on the energy transition by formulating ambitious interim targets and sourcing requirements, and by orchestrating corporate interests in countries with less ambitious renewable energy targets.
- Florian Egli
- , Rui Zhang
- & Bjarne Steffen
-
Article
| Open Access
Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility
The potential for the mitigation of global non-CO2 greenhouse gases is highly uncertain. Harmsen et al. estimate this uncertainty and show that it has large implications for the feasibility of reaching the Paris Climate Agreement targets.
- Mathijs Harmsen
- , Charlotte Tabak
- & Detlef van Vuuren
-
Article
| Open Access
Carbon reduction technology pathways for existing buildings in eight cities
Here, the authors perform analysis of technology pathways for existing buildings using urban building energy models developed with cities, showing that shallow and deep retrofits along with onsite photovoltaic and grid decarbonization can help achieve carbon reduction targets.
- Yu Qian Ang
- , Zachary Michael Berzolla
- & Christoph F. Reinhart
-
Article
| Open Access
China’s electric vehicle and climate ambitions jeopardized by surging critical material prices
Under a high-cost scenario for battery critical materials, the uptake of electric vehicles in China may be greatly reduced, leading to increased cumulative carbon emissions. This may jeopardize both China’s electric vehicle and climate targets.
- Hetong Wang
- , Kuishuang Feng
- & Jiashuo Li
-
Article
| Open Access
Understanding variability in petroleum jet fuel life cycle greenhouse gas emissions to inform aviation decarbonization
This study presents a global well-to-wake assessment of jet fuel greenhouse gas emissions with a range of 81.1-94.8 gCO2e MJ−1. Understanding this variability can improve decision-making amid the transition to decarbonizing aviation.
- Liang Jing
- , Hassan M. El-Houjeiri
- & Joule A. Bergerson
-
Article
| Open Access
Air pollution disparities and equality assessments of US national decarbonization strategies
Decarbonization is essential to achieving climate goals, but myopic decarbonization policies that ignore co-pollutants may leave Black and high-poverty communities with 26-34% higher PM2.5 exposure over the energy transition.
- Teagan Goforth
- & Destenie Nock
-
Article
| Open Access
Economy-wide evaluation of CO2 and air quality impacts of electrification in the United States
Electrification is a decarbonization strategy that has the potential to reduce pollutant emissions and improve air quality. Here the authors evaluate CO2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios in the United States and find that electrification can substantially lower CO2 and improve ozone and fine particulate matter regionally.
- John E. T. Bistline
- , Geoffrey Blanford
- & Greg Yarwood
-
Article
| Open Access
Comparing the levelized cost of electric vehicle charging options in Europe
Charging costs are important for the diffusion of electric vehicles as required to decarbonize transport. Here, the authors show large variance of electrical vehicle charging costs across 30 European countries and charging options, suggesting different policy options to reduce charging costs.
- Lukas Lanz
- , Bessie Noll
- & Bjarne Steffen
-
Article
| Open Access
Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half
A new study finds that Americans underestimate how many are concerned about climate change as well as support for major climate policies by nearly half, with climate policy supporters significantly outnumbering non-supporters.
- Gregg Sparkman
- , Nathan Geiger
- & Elke U. Weber
-
Article
| Open Access
Institutional decarbonization scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C goal
Here the authors present a framework to assess the temperature outcomes of decarbonization scenarios from institutions such as the IEA, BP and Shell. Scenarios are evaluated for consistency with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
- Robert J. Brecha
- , Gaurav Ganti
- & Matthew J. Gidden
-
Article
| Open Access
The role of natural gas in reaching net-zero emissions in the electric sector
Natural gas and carbon removal can play roles in reaching net-zero emissions in the U.S. electric sector and can lower decarbonization costs, though wind and solar have higher generation shares for most regions and scenarios.
- John E. T. Bistline
- & David T. Young
-
Article
| Open Access
Cross-cutting scenarios and strategies for designing decarbonization pathways in the transport sector toward carbon neutrality
New study shows how region-specific policy under the Avoid–Shift–Improve framework may aid in realizing a deep decarbonization in the transport sector and assist in achieving China’s carbon neutrality goals.
- Runsen Zhang
- & Tatsuya Hanaoka
-
Article
| Open Access
Cost increase in the electricity supply to achieve carbon neutrality in China
This study indicates that approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in China’s power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 19.9% or 9.6 CNY¢/kWh.
- Zhenyu Zhuo
- , Ershun Du
- & Chongqing Kang
-
Article
| Open Access
Electrifying passenger road transport in India requires near-term electricity grid decarbonisation
India’s plans to electrify transport is complicated by its reliance on coal-power. Here the authors call for diverse policy and technology solutions, including a focus on cleaner grids, electric 2-wheelers, and hybrid 4-wheelers in the near-term.
- Amir F. N. Abdul-Manan
- , Victor Gordillo Zavaleta
- & Amer A. Amer
-
Article
| Open Access
COVID-19, Green Deal and recovery plan permanently change emissions and prices in EU ETS Phase IV
This paper finds that the EU’s 2030 reduction target of -55% might correspond to EU ETS allowance prices between 45 and 94 e/ton CO2 today, while the invalidation rule reduces carbon emissions to 14.2 to 18.3 GtCO2 over the EU ETS’ remaining lifetime.
- Kenneth Bruninx
- & Marten Ovaere
-
Article
| Open Access
Plant conversions and abatement technologies cannot prevent stranding of power plant assets in 2 °C scenarios
Many existing and in-the-pipeline fossil-fuel power plants will have to be decommissioned or underused to avoid climate change beyond 2 °C, even under optimistic technology assumptions and after accounting for emission-reducing conversions.
- Yangsiyu Lu
- , Francois Cohen
- & Alexander Pfeiffer
-
Article
| Open Access
Assessing the energy transition in China towards carbon neutrality with a probabilistic framework
China’s transition path toward carbon neutrality remains uncertain. Here the authors combine Monte Carlo analysis with an energy-environment-economy model to present a probabilistic view of China’s energy transition across 3,000 cases.
- Shu Zhang
- & Wenying Chen
-
Article
| Open Access
Location-specific co-benefits of carbon emissions reduction from coal-fired power plants in China
Spatially nuanced policies are necessary for maximising co-benefits of carbon-emissions reduction from coal-fired power plants. Here the authors present an approach integrating costs of CO2 and air pollution emissions to better understand social costs of electricity generation from coal burning in China.
- Pu Wang
- , Cheng-Kuan Lin
- & Tong Wu
-
Article
| Open Access
Assessment of plum rain’s impact on power system emissions in Yangtze-Huaihe River basin of China
Plum rain may reduce photovoltaic potential due to lowered surface irradiance (SI). Here the authors note lowered SI in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basin by up to 20% due to rains, which, coupled with a large number of deployed PV systems, can cause incremental CO2 emissions of local power systems.
- Guangsheng Pan
- , Qinran Hu
- & Yuping Lu
-
Article
| Open Access
Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions
Despite global initiatives to reach net-zero CO2 emissions, the tradeoffs of energy systems to reach that goal remain understudied. Here the authors analyze all net-zero scenarios used for the 2018 IPCC report and quantify the role of renewable energy, fuels, and emissions in attaining a zero CO2 world.
- Julianne DeAngelo
- , Inês Azevedo
- & Steven J. Davis
-
Article
| Open Access
High resolution global spatiotemporal assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaics potential for renewable electricity generation
Though a global assessment of rooftop solar photovoltaic (RTSPV) technology’s potential and the cost is needed to estimate its impact, existing methods demand extensive data processing. Here, the authors report a machine learning method to realize a high-resolution global assessment of RTSPV potential.
- Siddharth Joshi
- , Shivika Mittal
- & James Glynn
-
Article
| Open Access
No COVID-19 climate silver lining in the US power sector
COVID-19 has decreased power sector emissions globally and in the United States. Here the authors assess whether such reductions would have occurred in the United States in the absence of the pandemic, as well as the potential impact of COVID-19 on coal-fired power plant retirements through 2022.
- Max Luke
- , Priyanshi Somani
- & Stephen J. Lee
-
Article
| Open Access
Higher cost of finance exacerbates a climate investment trap in developing economies
Access to low cost finance is vital for developing economies’ transition to green energy. Here the authors show how modelled decarbonization pathways for developing economies are disproportionately impacted by different weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assumptions.
- Nadia Ameli
- , Olivier Dessens
- & Michael Grubb
-
Article
| Open Access
Impact of carbon dioxide removal technologies on deep decarbonization of the electric power sector
Carbon dioxide removal technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and direct air can influence power sector planning and operations. Here the authors show how carbon removal options lower costs of deep decarbonization and alter electric sector investments.
- John E. T. Bistline
- & Geoffrey J. Blanford
-
Article
| Open Access
A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China
A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here, the authors detail how to structure a high-ambition, plant-by-plant coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs.
- Ryna Yiyun Cui
- , Nathan Hultman
- & Mengye Zhu
-
Article
| Open Access
Power sector investment implications of climate impacts on renewable resources in Latin America and the Caribbean
Substantial investment will be required in renewables to implement climate change mitigation. Here, the authors focus on Latin America and the Caribbean and find that climate impacts on renewables would result in additional investments $12-114 billion by 2100.
- Silvia R. Santos da Silva
- , Mohamad I. Hejazi
- & Chris R. Vernon
-
Article
| Open Access
A framework to predict the price of energy for the end-users with applications to monetary and energy policies
Global energy transformation requires quantifying the "price of energy" and studying its evolution. Here the authors present a predictive framework that calculates the average US price of energy, estimating future energy demands for up to four years with excellent accuracy, designing and optimizing energy and monetary policies.
- Stefanos G. Baratsas
- , Alexander M. Niziolek
- & Efstratios N. Pistikopoulos
-
Article
| Open Access
Early decarbonisation of the European energy system pays off
For a given carbon budget between 2020 and 2050, different transformation rates for the European energy system yield starkly different results. Here the authors show that strongly reducing emissions in the first decade is cost-effective and entails additional benefits.
- Marta Victoria
- , Kun Zhu
- & Martin Greiner
-
Article
| Open Access
Exploring the trade-offs between electric heating policy and carbon mitigation in China
China has enacted Electric Heating Policy to substitute electricity for in-home combustion for rural residential heating. Here the authors show that this shift would greatly increase national carbon emissions by 101.69–162.89 megatons in 2015 while impeding China’s carbon mitigation process in the future.
- Jianxiao Wang
- , Haiwang Zhong
- & Chongqing Kang
-
Article
| Open Access
Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States
Climate action from local actors is vital in achieving nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Here the authors show that existing commitments from U.S. states, cities and business could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, with expanded subnational action reducing emissions by 37% and federal action by up to 49%.
- Nathan E. Hultman
- , Leon Clarke
- & John O’Neill
-
Matters Arising
| Open Access
Unrealistic energy and materials requirement for direct air capture in deep mitigation pathways
- Sudipta Chatterjee
- & Kuo-Wei Huang
-
Article
| Open Access
Solar photovoltaic interventions have reduced rural poverty in China
There lacks a comprehensive analysis on the large-scale deployment of solar photovoltaic projects and its impact on poverty alleviation. Here the authors show that solar photovoltaic poverty alleviation pilot policy increases per-capita disposable income in a county by approximately 7%-8%.
- Huiming Zhang
- , Kai Wu
- & Xianqiang Ren
-
Article
| Open Access
Carbon footprint of global natural gas supplies to China
The carbon footprints of natural gas supplies at the field level are unclear. Here the authors analysed the GHG intensities of gas supplies from 104 fields and show that their GHG intensities range from 6.2 to 43.3 g CO2eq MJ-1.
- Yu Gan
- , Hassan M. El-Houjeiri
- & Michael Wang
-
Article
| Open Access
Quantifying operational lifetimes for coal power plants under the Paris goals
The plant-by-plant retirement needs are not well-understood yet to achieve the rapid transition away from coal use. Here the authors found that operational lifetimes of existing units must be reduced to approximately 35 years to keep warming well below 2 °C or 20 years for 1.5 °C, even if no new capacity comes online.
- Ryna Yiyun Cui
- , Nathan Hultman
- & Christine Shearer
-
Article
| Open Access
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions of Amazon hydropower with strategic dam planning
Some dams produce large amounts of GHGs and it is important to see whether future dams will satisfy sustainable energy goals. Here the authors estimate the range of GHG emission intensities expected for 351 proposed and 158 existing Amazon dams and find that existing Amazon hydropower reservoirs collectively emit 14 Tg CO2eq per year, and that if all proposed Amazon dams are built, annual emissions would increase 5-fold.
- Rafael M. Almeida
- , Qinru Shi
- & Alexander S. Flecker
-
Article
| Open Access
Employing antineutrino detectors to safeguard future nuclear reactors from diversions
Nuclear reactors can be used for energy generation or for dangerous weapons and therefore their monitoring is crucial. Here the authors discuss detecting antineutrino from a nuclear reactor and use it for nuclear safeguards in a diversion scenario.
- Christopher Stewart
- , Abdalla Abou-Jaoude
- & Anna Erickson
-
Article
| Open Access
The emergence of cost effective battery storage
It is important to examine the economic viability of battery storage investments. Here the authors introduced the Levelized Cost of Energy Storage metric to estimate the breakeven cost for energy storage and found that behind-the-meter storage installations will be financially advantageous in both Germany and California.
- Stephen Comello
- & Stefan Reichelstein
-
Article
| Open Access
Perceptions of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in different policy scenarios
It is not clear how the public views the acceptability of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). Here the authors explored public perceptions of BECCS by situating the technology in three policy scenarios and found that the policy instrument used to incentivise BECCS significantly affects the degree of public support for the technology.
- Rob Bellamy
- , Javier Lezaun
- & James Palmer
-
Article
| Open Access
China’s coal mine methane regulations have not curbed growing emissions
Chinese government has implemented regulations to reduce mining-related methane emission since 2010. Here the authors estimated methane emissions in China using GOSAT satellite observation and results reveal a business-as-usual increase in methane emissions since 2010 despite those ambitious targets.
- Scot M. Miller
- , Anna M. Michalak
- & Stefan Schwietzke
-
Article
| Open Access
Air quality co-benefits for human health and agriculture counterbalance costs to meet Paris Agreement pledges
Local air quality co-benefits can provide convincing support for climate action. Here the authors revisited air quality co-benefits of climate action in the context of NDCs and found that 71–99 thousand premature deaths can be avoided each year by 2030, offsetting the climate mitigation costs on a global level.
- Toon Vandyck
- , Kimon Keramidas
- & Bert Saveyn
-
Article
| Open Access
Displacement efficiency of alternative energy and trans-provincial imported electricity in China
Alternative energy is widely believed to proportionally displace fossil fuels. Here, the authors analyse displacement values for China between 1995 and 2014 and show that alternative energy, primarily hydropower, displaced ∼1/4 of a unit of fossil electricity, twice the global average.
- Yuanan Hu
- & Hefa Cheng
Compensating affected parties necessary for rapid coal phase-out but expensive if extended to major emitters