Public health articles within Nature Communications

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  • Article
    | Open Access

    Live poultry markets in rural areas can be hotspots for transmission of pathogens, but the effects of markets on selection of viral virulence are not known. This study demonstrates through mathematical modelling that high turnover rate and persistence of viral particles can select for highly virulent pathogens in markets.

    • Justin K. Sheen
    • , Fidisoa Rasambainarivo
    •  & C. Jessica E. Metcalf

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Seasonal influenza levels were unusually low when non-pharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 were in place. Here, the authors analyse serological and epidemiological evidence for the hypothesis that such lulls in influenza transmission lead to reduced immunity and therefore larger epidemics in subsequent seasons.

    • Simon P. J. de Jong
    • , Zandra C. Felix Garza
    •  & Colin A. Russell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Despite being recommended, day-zero biopsies are often not performed, due to the cost and time. Here, the authors show that machine learning and donor’s basic parameters can predict the biopsy, offering a reliable virtual estimation of the day-zero biopsy findings.

    • Daniel Yoo
    • , Gillian Divard
    •  & Alexandre Loupy

  • Article
    | Open Access

    SARS-CoV-2 coinfections may lead to recombination events which could be important in the emergence of new variants. Here, the authors develop an automated bioinformatics pipeline to identify coinfections in genomic data and test it on >2 million publicly available raw read data sets collected globally.

    • Orsolya Anna Pipek
    • , Anna Medgyes-Horváth
    •  & István Csabai

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Bacteria in the same environment can share genetic material but the extent to which this influences development of antimicrobial resistance is unclear. Here, the authors investigate the evidence for co-evolution of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria found coexisting in animals and the environment in chicken farms and slaughterhouses in China.

    • Michelle Baker
    • , Xibin Zhang
    •  & Tania Dottorini

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The relation between daily meal and fasting timing with cardiovascular disease incidence remains unclear. Here, authors show that a later daily meal timing is associated with increased cardiovascular disease risk, especially in women. This study suggests that adopting earlier daily eating patterns may be beneficial for cardiovascular prevention.

    • Anna Palomar-Cros
    • , Valentina A. Andreeva
    •  & Bernard Srour

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Childhood obesity remains a global epidemic. Here, using objective measurements, the authors show that sedentary time increased from 6 h/day in childhood to 9 h/day in young adulthood, and was cumulatively associated with increased total and trunk fat mass. Both light or moderate-to-vigorous physical activity similarly partly reversed risk.

    • Andrew O. Agbaje
    • , Wei Perng
    •  & Tomi-Pekka Tuomainen

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The geographic distribution of dengue has been expanding in recent decades, and Vietnam is one of the most severely affected countries. In this study, the authors use Bayesian hierarchical modelling to investigate the socio-environmental and climatic drivers of dengue incidence in Vietnam and how they vary across the country.

    • Rory Gibb
    • , Felipe J. Colón-González
    •  & Rachel Lowe

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    Endometriosis is an incurable, under-diagnosed, systemic inflammatory disease affecting millions world-wide. Common symptoms include life-impacting pain, gastrointestinal/urinary symptoms, excessive fatigue, and infertility. Global public health policies are urgently needed to promote awareness, implement multidisciplinary care, and fund research for aetiology, biomarker discovery, and effective therapies for symptoms associated with endometriosis.

    • Linda C. Giudice
    • , Andrew W. Horne
    •  & Stacey A. Missmer

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Antivirals are now available for treating COVID-19 but must be used early in the course of infection to be effective. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling to assess the potential public health impacts of antiviral use considering different levels of testing and country sociodemographic characteristics.

    • Alvin X. Han
    • , Emma Hannay
    •  & Colin A. Russell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Determining the prevalence of Long COVID is challenging because many symptoms attributed to the syndrome could have other causes. Here, the authors estimate the prevalence of Long COVID in Scotland by comparing rates of symptoms reported by people with and without history of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

    • Claire E. Hastie
    • , David J. Lowe
    •  & Jill P. Pell

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Novel indicators of infectious disease prevalence could improve real-time surveillance and support healthcare planning. Here, the authors show that sales data for non-prescription medications from a UK high street retailer can improve the accuracy of models forecasting mortality from respiratory infections.

    • Elizabeth Dolan
    • , James Goulding
    •  & Laila J. Tata

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Post-acute COVID-19 condition is difficult to quantify because it includes a range of symptoms that may have other causes. In this study, the authors use primary care data from England and Catalonia, Spain, to estimate the incidence of the condition and identify symptoms that occur more frequently following infection than in uninfected controls.

    • Kristin Kostka
    • , Elena Roel
    •  & Annika M. Jödicke

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Pneumococcal vaccination has been shown to promote emergence of non-vaccine S. pneumoniae serotypes. Here, the authors use data from Malawi to investigate whether vaccine introduction also results in changes in metabolic, virulence, and antimicrobial resistance profiles of circulating strains.

    • Uri Obolski
    • , Todd D. Swarthout
    •  & Robert S. Heyderman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The relationship between circadian function and frailty is not well understood. Here, the authors show that disturbances in circadian rest-activity rhythms were associated with an elevated frailty risk and faster progress of frailty in older adults.

    • Ruixue Cai
    • , Lei Gao
    •  & Peng Li

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors develop a mathematical modelling framework to estimate the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 incidence. The model accounts for changes in SARS-CoV-2 variant and population immunity, and here they use it to investigate epidemic dynamics in French Polynesia.

    • Lloyd A. C. Chapman
    • , Maite Aubry
    •  & Adam J. Kucharski

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    The superspreading that characterized SARS and now COVID-19 can be rapidly quantified; however, its implications for outbreak control were never well understood. Recent studies point to its profound impact on outbreak dynamics and prospects for effective control of a future Disease X. These insights necessitate research into the mechanisms, impact and different modes of superspreading more widely.

    • Bjarke Frost Nielsen
    • , Kim Sneppen
    •  & Lone Simonsen

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    In this Comment, the authors describe recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza in cat shelters in Seoul, South Korea. They discuss potential routes of transmission and describe implications for surveillance of spillover infections in animals in non-agricultural settings.

    • Younjung Kim
    • , Guillaume Fournié
    •  & Pierre Nouvellet

  • Article
    | Open Access

    This study assesses the effectiveness of a second COVID-19 mRNA booster vaccine against severe disease using data from Chile. The authors find that the effectiveness of the second mRNA booster was high with a range of different background vaccination schemes, but there was evidence of waning over time.

    • Alejandro Jara
    • , Cristobal Cuadrado
    •  & Rafael Araos

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Identification of areas with risk factors for spillover of viruses from animals to humans could assist with early detection of emerging infectious diseases. In this study, the authors characterise potential risks for spillover of SARS-like viruses from bats to humans and identify geographical regions in which multiple risk factors cluster together.

    • Renata L. Muylaert
    • , David A. Wilkinson
    •  & David T. S. Hayman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The duration of symptomatic COVID-19 and its impacts on health and quality of life are not well understood. In this study, the authors report results from a survey of ~275,000 adults in England and find that persistent COVID-19 is relatively rare but is associated with poorer mental health and health-related quality of life.

    • Christina J. Atchison
    • , Bethan Davies
    •  & Paul Elliott

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Digital proximity tracing apps were widely used during the COVID-19 pandemic but have not been thoroughly evaluated. Here, the authors use data from students in Leuven, Belgium and estimate that apps notified only ~4% exposed contacts, had a 1–2 day delay for notification, and identified fewer infected contacts than manual contact tracing.

    • Caspar Geenen
    • , Joren Raymenants
    •  & Emmanuel André

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Non-falciparum malaria may cause a significant disease burden in highly endemic regions, but epidemiological data is limited. In this study, the authors estimate the incidence and prevalence of P. malariae, P. ovale spp., in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo and compare to P. falciparum, which known to be common in the region.

    • Rachel Sendor
    • , Kristin Banek
    •  & Jonathan B. Parr

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors compare the viral kinetics of first and second SARS-CoV-2 infections using data from an occupational surveillance scheme in the National Basketball League. They find that second infections tend to have a faster clearance time, and that clearance times in first and second infections were positively correlated.

    • Stephen M. Kissler
    • , James A. Hay
    •  & Yonatan H. Grad

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a haematological malignancy that is preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Here, the authors use a mechanistic model fitted to surveillance data from the United States to investigate whether variation in MM is best explained by incidence of MGUS or rate of progression to MM.

    • John H. Huber
    • , Mengmeng Ji
    •  & Su-Hsin Chang

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Bivalent mRNA COVID-19 vaccines have been developed to provide broader protection against SARS-CoV-2 variants. In this cohort study based on electronic health records from the United States, the authors estimate the effectiveness of bivalent, compared to monovalent, vaccines and no vaccination against a range of COVID-19-related outcomes.

    • Hung Fu Tseng
    • , Bradley K. Ackerson
    •  & Lei Qian

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Benefits of breastfeeding are well established, but a comprehensive study about its impacts on hospitalizations is lacking. Here, the authors use Korean nationwide birth cohort data (n = 1,608,540) and find that breastfeeding for at least 6 months was associated with a lower risk for subsequent hospital admissions.

    • Jeong-Seon Lee
    • , Jae Il Shin
    •  & Dong Keon Yon

  • Comment
    | Open Access

    WHO guidelines for classification of malaria elimination in a country require that the risk of human infection from zoonotic, as well as nonzoonotic, malaria parasites is negligible. In this Comment, the authors discuss the implications of this policy for countries, such as Malaysia, with no recent reported nonzoonotic cases but ongoing zoonotic transmission.

    • Kimberly M. Fornace
    • , Chris J. Drakeley
    •  & Kamruddin Ahmed

  • Article
    | Open Access

    The 21st Century has witnessed a series of global food crises, though little is known about how rising food prices affect child nutrition. The authors show that increases in the real price of food elevate the risk of a child being wasted, which in turn poses a serious risk for their survival.

    • Derek Headey
    •  & Marie Ruel

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Understanding the causal impact that risk factors have on healthcare cost is critical to evaluate healthcare interventions. Here, authors show that waist circumference, body mass index, and blood pressure have robust causal impact on healthcare cost.

    • Jiwoo Lee
    • , Sakari Jukarainen
    •  & Andrea Ganna

  • Article
    | Open Access

    In this study, the authors investigate immune responses following a third (booster) SARS-CoV-2 vaccination dose in a cohort of healthcare professionals in Denmark. They find stronger immune responses among those with a prior infection, and correlation between lower antibody responses and higher risk of subsequent breakthrough infection.

    • Laura Pérez-Alós
    • , Cecilie Bo Hansen
    •  & Peter Garred

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Control of rabies in Africa through mass vaccination of dogs may be compromised by cross-border transmission. Here, the authors use mathematical modelling and a benefit-cost analysis to demonstrate that coordinating rabies control measures across borders could lead to the elimination of dog rabies in Africa.

    • A. Bucher
    • , A. Dimov
    •  & J. Zinsstag

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A/H5N1 has recently emerged in the Americas and has been implicated in mass die-off events of pelicans and sea lions. Here, the authors report sampling and characterisation of HPAI A/H5N1 genomes from five marine mammal and seabird species in Peru.

    • Mariana Leguia
    • , Alejandra Garcia-Glaessner
    •  & Jesus Lescano

  • Article
    | Open Access

    It is unclear whether SARS-CoV-2 immunity decreases transmission through reduction in contagiousness of cases or susceptibility of contacts. Here, the authors use testing and contact data from Geneva, Switzerland and find that increased protection of contacts was the main driver of reduced transmission.

    • Denis Mongin
    • , Nils Bürgisser
    •  & Delphine Sophie Courvoisier

  • Article
    | Open Access

    China maintained a ‘zero-COVID’ policy from early in the pandemic until late 2022 that employed various public health interventions with the aim of COVID-19 containment. Here, the authors use data from 131 outbreaks in China to estimate the effects of a range of interventions against different SARS-CoV-2 variants in diverse settings.

    • Yong Ge
    • , Xilin Wu
    •  & Shengjie Lai

  • Article
    | Open Access

    White-tailed deer are an important reservoir of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA and continued monitoring of the virus in deer populations is needed. In this genomic epidemiology study from Ohio, the authors show that the virus has been introduced multiple times to deer from humans, and that it has evolved faster in deer.

    • Dillon S. McBride
    • , Sofya K. Garushyants
    •  & Andrew S. Bowman

  • Article
    | Open Access

    Estimating health burden of air pollution against the background of population aging is of significance for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3.9. Here, the authors show that population aging is expected to be the leading contributor to increased deaths attributable to PM2.5 in China by 2035, which will counter the positive gains achieved by improvements in air pollution and healthcare.

    • Fangjin Xu
    • , Qingxu Huang
    •  & Brett A. Bryan

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